Preliminary September Class 8 truck net orders were somewhat mixed, according to data respectively issued this week by FTR and ACT Research.
FTR reported that preliminary September Class 8 net orders, at 30,000 units, saw a 107% gain over August, while falling 4% annually, which it said matches up with seasonal expectations for average September order levels over the last seven years, at 32,170 units. The firm explained that with the trucking market still dealing with stagnation—in terms of volume and rates—September’s tally is viewed as “very balanced,” suggesting an initial, healthy level of demand for new trucks in 2025, with September typically representing the opening of order boards for the following year.
On a year-to-date level, FTR said that order numbers are now at replacement demand levels, at an average of 20,107 net orders per month. What’s more, despite four straight months of lower annual orders, FTR noted that strong early performance has kept 2024 year-to-date net order levels up 11% annually. And it added that over the last 12 months through September, Class 8 orders are now at 270,819 units.
“This month, OEMs saw positive market demand, though the magnitude of the m/m increases varied,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles. “The vocational market considerably outperformed the conventional sector, driving most of the m/m improvement. Despite stagnant freight markets, fleets continue to invest in new equipment, albeit at replacement demand levels in 2024 to date. We expect a modest increase in September backlogs once the final Class 8 market data is released later this month. With inventory remaining near record levels, we also expect further downward pressure on build rates through the end of 2024.”
ACT data: ACT reported that September preliminary Class 8 North American net orders, at 37,100 units, doubled August’s tally, while heading up 0.3% annually.
“Class 8 orders jumped well above trend and seasonally elevated expectations in September,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “Historically, September is the first month of stronger orders, as the OEMs open their order books to next year’s orders. As such, for the first time since March, seasonality lowers the monthly order volume. On a seasonally adjusted basis, Class 8 orders jumped 92% from August, to 35,200 units, a 423k SAAR.”
