September brought another strong month for U.S.-bound imports of containerized freight, according to recent data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Imports in September totaled 2.88 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), marking a 13.4% year-over-year increase—up for the 13th consecutive month. This surpassed August’s 10.9% annual growth rate but trailed July’s 14.6% growth, the largest since March’s 16% reading. From August to September, imports increased by 1.8%.
Year-to-date through September, U.S.-bound shipments reached 24.06 million TEU, reflecting a 12.5% annual increase.
For Q3, S&P reported that total U.S.-bound containerized freight imports rose 13.0% year-over-year, despite the numerous challenges U.S. supply chains faced, including heavy weather, port labor disputes, and global port disruptions.
Looking at imports for specific commodities, S&P reported the following for September:
- Consumer durables rose 13.5% and increased by 13.3% for the quarter;
- Capital goods grew by 3.8% but were up 5.5% for the quarter. This was the slowest-growing sector, reflecting a downturn in manufacturing activity and a likely associated reduction in capital expenditures by factory owners;
- Leisure goods, including toys, rose 21.4%, benefiting from early shipping to avoid disruptions and supporting earlier-than-ever selling seasons; and
- Consumer electronics were up 9.1% in September, following a 6.0% gain in August, indicating that underlying demand is gradually picking up, along with some early shipping
S&P Global Market Research Director Chris Rogers said in an interview that he expects 2024 to be stronger than 2023, due to the significant inventory de-stocking that took place last year.
“All that was needed was a return to ‘normal’ for 2024 to look strong, optically. It was always likely to be down compared to the boom years, but not too far off,” he said. “Year-to-date, we’re at the same point as 2021 and 2022—around 25 million TEU—while this time last year, we were at 21 million. If you draw a straight line through the past five years, from 2019 to 2024, it forms a sensible trend. But we’ve experienced a lot in between.”
Rogers noted that a return to more typical inventory management signals that 2024 should see stronger performance compared to 2023. He also pointed out that weather disruptions played a role, as expected, while labor issues at East and Gulf Coast ports, along with disruptions in the Red Sea and Panama Canal, were also contributing factors. The latter has since been resolved.
“Although there have been plenty of disruptions, I’d argue that they weren’t entirely unexpected, which is why firms took steps to deal with them in advance,” he said. “We’ve seen this reflected in different sectors of the economy, with some goods seeing faster growth than others.”
This trend was evident in the September data, which Rogers described as a “bifurcation.” It was a strong month for consumer-related goods, with durable goods up 16.5%—including home furnishings (up 19%) and leisure goods (up 21%). These gains were supported by pull-forward activity and weak annual comparisons. However, the picture for industrial goods was less favorable, with capital goods increasing by only around 4%.
Looking ahead to Q1 2024, S&P forecasts U.S.-bound containerized freight shipments to increase by 4.1%, up from a 3.8% estimate for Q4. Rogers explained that these forecasts are based on the assumption of business-as-usual policies.
“When looking at the impact of the East and Gulf Coast port labor stoppage on the quarter, you won’t see it reflected in the October data because it was brief,” he said. “The concern, however, is that if there is a strike in January or early February, it could be longer. The labor issue has been resolved, but the automation component is still being phased in. This will take time for two reasons: First, it allows for worker support, either through training to operate the machines or finding alternative roles. Second, the U.S. doesn’t currently manufacture these cranes. The argument is, ‘you can automate, but you need American-made cranes.’ This could be a potential solution that satisfies all parties.”
