Retail sales saw gains in September, according to data respectively issued today by the United States Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce and the National Retail Federation (NRF).
Commerce reported that total September retail sales, at $714.4 billion, rose 0.4% compared to August and were up 1.7% annually. It added that total retail sales from July through September headed up 2.4% compared to the same period a year ago.
Looking at specific retail segments, Commerce stated that retail trade sales were up 0.3% over August and increased 1.5% annually. And non-store retailers, which includes e-commerce, headed up 7.1% annually, down from 7.8% in August, with food services and drinking places seeing a 3.7% annual gain, up from 2.7% in August.
NRF reported that its calculation of September retail sales, which is based on Census data and excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, saw retail sales rise 0.4% on a seasonally-adjusted basis month-over-month, topping August’s 0.1% increase, and were up 1.7% on an unadjusted basis annually, down from 2.2% in August.
It added that core retail sales headed up 0.7% on a seasonally-adjusted basis, from August to September, and up 2.4% on an unadjusted basis for the same period. Core retail sales saw a 3.3% annual gain through September on a year-to-date basis, which NRF said matches up with its 2024 forecast of annual retail sales growth of 2.5%-to-3.5%—which matches its 2024 Holiday Season forecast, which was issued earlier this week.
NRF cited employment growth, coupled with lower inflation and interest rates, as drivers for September’s gains.
“While there have been some signs of tightening in consumer spending, September’s numbers show consumers are willing to spend where they see value,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “September sales come amid the recent trend of payroll gains and other positive economic signs. Clearly, consumers continue to carry the economy, and conditions for the retail sector remain favorable as we move into the holiday season.”
Nikki Baird, VP of strategy & product, Aptos, a retail technology company which serves hundreds of household retail brands, described retail as a mixed bag at the moment, with some winners and some losers.
“And a lot of that comes down to the experience offered,” she said. “Consumers today have higher expectations for what a retail experience—particularly in the store—needs to offer than it did five years ago. The American consumer has been more resilient than anyone could have expected. But that isn’t a free pass for retailers to underinvest in their stores. Investments in labor, investments in customer experience tech, investments in digital transformation of the store … it’s been too easy to kick the can down the road until you suddenly realize there’s no road left.”
