September freight shipment and expenditure readings were largely down in September, according to the new edition of the Cass Freight Index, which was recently issued by Cass Information Systems.
Many freight transportation and logistics executives and analysts consider the Cass Freight Index to be the most accurate barometer of freight volumes and market conditions, with many analysts noting that the Cass Freight Index sometimes leads the American Trucking Associations (ATA) tonnage index at turning points, which lends to the value of the Cass Freight Index.
What’s more, the Cass Transportation Index accurately measure changes in North American freight activity and costs based on $44 billion in paid freight expenses for the Cass customer base of hundreds of large shippers.
September’s shipment reading, at 1.102, fell 5.2% annually, following a 1.9% annual decline in August (which was its smallest decline in 18 months through August), and was off 1.7% compared to August, its seventh sequential decline in eight months through September and were down 3.2% sequentially on a Seasonally-Adjusted (SA) basis. On a two-year stacked change basis, shipments were down 11.2%.
“In a sign that private fleet insourcing still isn’t finished, the decline comes as Class 8 tractor sales jumped in Q3 after supply constraints in Q2,” wrote Tim Denoyer, the report’s author and ACT Research vice president and senior analyst, in the report. “After rising 13% in 2021 and 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023. With normal seasonality, the index will fall about 3% y/y in October and 4%-5% in 2024.”
September expenditures, at 3.224, decreased 6.6% annually, while falling 30.3% on a two-year stacked-change basis. And expenditures were up 2.4% sequentially and up 0.4% sequentially on a SA basis.
“The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, rose 2.4% m/m in September despite another decline in fuel prices,” wrote Denoyer. “The y/y decline in expenditures moderated to 6.6% from 9.0% in August. With shipments down 1.7% m/m, we infer the 2.4% increase in expenditures included rates up 4.2% m/m in August.”
